Aff probably wins because theory is argued horribly and the neg is behind almost everything on T. I think full theory in the 2NR is your best bet here, the aff CX answer was really shady to me and probably wouldn't have happened in a real debate, where the answer isn't a full rejoinder of the question, e.g.
"Do you defend USFG action."
"We don't defend USFG action."
Where instead they just didn't defend the USFG.
I think both strats starting from the first constructives are generally pretty bad, the cards are ridiculously warrant-less especially in the 1AC, and the internal link chains seem sketchy as all hell. I'm super down to buy ableism leads to eugenics anywhere, but the internal link chains just aren't there. To buy these chains, I need examples even of just your premise: which kids are being left behind, who is being left behind? I never find out. I think neg should go way harder on case, this wasn't a particularly strong one, you don't need cards, just read theirs and do some analysis. The Neg args you go with are incredibly unconvincing from the get-go, fiat double bind isn't even effective as a time-skew especially when there's perf-con, the Fed DA contradicts your T violation, the CP is next to non-responsive, and you cold concede case solvency. I can't imagine that combination of arguments EVER being effective. Maybe just go for T and Case? I would prefer you engage with the case far more than you do.
After the first two speeches it's clear the aff has some mid-tier blocks which swing the debate in their favor, the neg falls on some weak generic DAs that look they were found on scribd and never goes back to them. There's a weak theory arg which really doesn't even link to them in a real round, because they definitely are still USFG action even if their CX was sketch. Besides that there's no reason that 1NR should come close to 5 minutes. The 2NC also needs to be way stronger, I don't even understand why they aren't topical after the round, just that they said they don't defend the USFG. They aren't exclusive.
On that note, aff needs a we meet, and probably a better-cut 1AC to respond to this T shit better.
If those aff blocks aren't stolen I'm really impressed but you need to fix the rest of your aff, the case is just really weak.
Sorry if this sounds negative but I don't think it's fair to say that this was a very good round
Hopefully y'all keep improving, I know y'all can do it