I disagree. The economy has been sluggishly increasing for the last few years, but not nearly as fast as Obama led people to believe back in 2008. People expected him to be some magic solution to the economy, and he just hasn't really pulled through. "How's that whole hopey-changey thing working out for ya?" High unemployment, coupled with record high gas prices (which will be especially devastating if they don't come down) are going to be hard to spin as wins. People have very short term memories; many will vote republican in 2012 for the same reason they voted Obama back in 2008 - the promise of quick change.
The GOP won the media debate on health care. The bill that passed is socialist, massively expensive, and extremely unpopular. Whether it brings down costs in reality matters much less (in my opinion).
I don't see Obama getting credit for budget cuts. Without touching military or entitlement spending, most cuts are pretty insignificant. The GOP will just keep reiterating how large the deficit still is, and (correctly) argue that we're still spending more than we're bringing in. Obama is branded as a "big-government-loving socialist." Whether it's true or not, people believe it.