The continued spread of AIDS through Sub-Saharan Africa risks human extinction
THE JAKARTA POSTMarch 6,2000
Although the UN and the Security Council cannot solve all African problems, the AIDS challenge is a fundamental one in that it threatens to wipe out man. The challenge is not one of a single continent alone because Africa cannot be quarantined. The trouble is that AIDS has no cure -- and thus even the West has stakes in the AIDS challenge. Once sub-Saharan Africa is wiped out, it shall not be long before another continent is on the brink of extinction. Sure as death, Africa's time has run out, signaling the beginning of the end of the black race and maybe the human race.
AIDS is one of the biggest security threats the world faces and the status quo is genocide by complacency.
Benatar and Fox 05[solomon R. Benatar, Department of Medicine and Bioethics Centre, University of Cape Town, Renée C. Fox Department of Sociology and Center for Bioethics, University of Pennsylvania “Meeting Threats to Global Health a call for American leadership” Perspectives in Biology and Medicine 48.3]
Responding to the growing realization that the global apathy towards the unfolding tragedy of the HIV/AIDS pandemic in developing countries is a "crime against humanity," former U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell set a positive example in expressing the view that HIV/AIDS "is a catastrophe far worse by orders of magnitude than any problem or crisis we have on the face of the earth now . . . a catastrophe worse than terrorism" (Hogg et al. 2002). If an expensive [End Page 355] war against terrorism that threatens the lives of many thousands can be justified in the minds of some, a war against diseases that threatens the lives of millions of people should receive much greater support. Stephen Lewis (2003), the U.N. Secretary General's special envoy for HIV/AIDS, has been exemplary in courageously accusing world governments who ignore starvation and HIV/AIDS in Africa of "mass murder by complacency," and in raising the question of whether future peacetime tribunals will hold such governments accountable for these forms of crimes against humanity.
AIDS destroying the social fabric of society.
Cincotta and Haddock 06 [Richard P. Cincotta and Sarah Haddock February 1, 2006 Family Planning in Sub-Saharan Africa: Reducing Risks in the Era of AIDS volume 1, issue 2 http://www.populationaction.org/Publications/Research_Commentaries/Family_Planning_in_Sub_Saharan_Africa/Summary.shtml]
Destroying the social fabric Ninety percent of HIV-associated fatalities occur among people of working age. Like no other disease, AIDS debilitates and kills people in their most productive years. People in these age groups have largely completed formal education, and most are building or maintaining a family. Thus, the costs to social investment and social cohesiveness can be devastating in the most seriously AIDS-affected societies. Projections suggest the disease’s most destructive period is still to come. Four trends induced by HIV/AIDS pose threats to civil stability: 1) extremely high proportions of young adults; 2) the loss of trained teachers, technicians and professionals; 3) the weakening of police units and the undermining of military readiness; and4) the staggering number of orphaned children.
Death toll in Africa will keep rising due to AIDS
AVERT, 2005 [Avert.org, HOW MANY PEOPLE IN AFRICA: ARE INFECTED WITH HIV?, December 2005, http://www.avert.org/aafrica.htm (PDAF0126)]
The extent of the epidemic is only now becoming clear in many African countries, as increasing numbers of people with HIV are now becoming ill. In the absence of massively expanded prevention, treatment and care efforts, the AIDS death toll on the continent is expected to continue rising before peaking around the end of the decade. This means that the worst of the epidemic's impact on these societies will be felt in the course of the next ten years and beyond. Its social and economic consequences are already being felt widely not only in health but in education, industry, agriculture, transport, human resources and the economy in general.
There are 4 to 5 million HIV/AIDS infections every year
WAAL, 03[Alex de Waal, Commission for HIV/AIDS Governance in Africa, 2003, Global Health Challenges for Human Security, eds. L. Chen, J. Leaning, & V. Narasimhan, p. 126 (HARVAF0513)]
Approximately 30 million people in Africa are living with HIV and AIDS. There are between four and five million new infections every year, and currently between two and three million people die every year from AIDS and related causes. Yet less than 0.2% OF Africans are currently on a prescribed course of anti-retroviral treatment. Even if one million people in Africa begin anti-retroviral treatment every year for the next five years, the number of people living with untreated HIV an AIDS in the comment will continue to rise. Moreover, the nature of the epidemic means that the worst is yet to come. The time lag between HIV infection and death from AIDS is estimated at about nine years in Africa (somewhat shorter than in Europe and North America). Given the recency of the HIV epidemic, notably in South Africa, the vast majority of AIDS mortality remains in the future. The level of deaths we are witnessing now reflects indicates a substantially higher number of deaths nine years hence. Figure 1 illustrates the dual nature of the HIV/AIDS epidemic. The direct impact of HIV—namely, the deaths of tens of millions of human beings from AIDS—is the greatest threat to human life in the coming century. We are only at the beginning of the global HIV/AIDS pandemic. To appreciate what this entails for human security, we must stretch our imaginations.
AIDS is the biggest killer in Sub-Saharan Africa
ROTHBERG, 07[Dr. Robert Rothberg, Harvard Medical School, AFRICA: PROGRESS & PROBLEMS -- AIDS & HEALTH ISSUES, 2007, p. 24]
The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), which causes AIDS, is the leading infectious diseases threat in the world today. While more than 25 million people have died from AIDS since the early 1980s, that number is expected to reach 45 million by 2010. The fourth-biggest killer in the world, HIV/AIDS is the leading cause of death in Sub-Saharan Africa.
55 million Africans are projected to die of AIDS by 2020
COOK, 06[Nicolas Cook, Congressional Research Service, AIDS IN AFRICA, May 5, 2006, http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/67156.pdf (PDAF0152)]
Based on aggregate estimates, about 27.5 million Africans have died of AIDS since 1982 at the start of the epidemic, including about 2.4 million or more in 2005. UNAIDS has projected that between 2000 and 2020, 55 million Africans will likely have lost their lives to AIDS, which has surpassed malaria as the leading cause of death in Africa and kills many times more people than Africa’s armed conflicts.
Millions in Sub-Saharan Africa have died of AIDS and will continue
GAMBARI, 01[Professor Ibrahim Gambari, UN Under-secretary-general on Africa, “The UN and Africa’s Development in the 21st Century, February 7, 2001, http://www.africacentre.org.uk/UNGambari.htm (HARVUN1222)]
When AIDS emerged over two decades ago, few people could predict the devastating impact that the disease would have. In 1991 estimates were that in Sub-Saharan Africa, by the end of the decade, 9 million people would be infected with the disease while 5 million would die. This prediction was proved wrong. Statistics show that the pandemic has killed 10 times more than in armed conflict on the continent. In 1999 alone, there were 6 million new infections worldwide, while the number of children orphaned by AIDS reached 13.2 million. Since the disease was discovered, over 24 million people have died with AIDS and AIDS related illnesses and ¾ of those were in the African continent. The report released by UNAIDS in June, 2000 tells us that there are about 25 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa living with AIDS and among those nearly 4 million are children. The prevalence rates among people between 25-49 years old exceeds 10% in 16 countries of the subcontinent. Africa is a home of the 70% of the infected adults and 80% of the infected children. AIDS has devastated many communities in Africa, rolled back decades of development and pushed stigmatised groups to the margins of the society.
IGNORING ANY FACET OF AIDS IN AFRICA IS = TO BEING COMPLICIT WITH MASS-MURDER –AIDS WILL KILL MORE PEOPLE IN AFRICA THAN ALL WARS COMBINED AND DEVASTATE THE ENTIRE CONTINENT
Brown, 06[(Lester, Former International Agricultural Analyst for U.S. Department of Agriculture and President of Worldwatch Institute, Earth Policy Institute, Plan B 2.0 – Rescuing A Planet Under Stress And A Civilization In Trouble, Chapter Six, http://www.earth-policy.org/Books/PB2/PB2ch6_ss3.htm)]
Although diseases such as malaria and cholera exact a heavy toll, there is no precedent for the number of lives affected by the HIV epidemic. To find anything similar to such a potentially devastating loss of life, we have to go back to the smallpox decimation of Native American communities in the sixteenth century or to the bubonic plague that took roughly a fourth of Europe’s population during the fourteenth century. HIV should be seen for what it is—an epidemic of epic proportions that, if not checked soon, could take more lives during this century than were claimed by all the wars of the last century. 17 Since the human immunodeficiency virus was identified in 1981, this infection has spread worldwide. By 1990, an estimated 10 million people were infected with the virus. By the end of 2004, the number who had been infected climbed to 78 million. Of this total, 38 million have died; 39 million are living with the virus. Twenty-five million HIV-positive people today live in sub-Saharan Africa, but only 500,000 or so are being treated with anti-retroviral drugs. Seven million live in South and Southeast Asia, with over 5 million of them in India alone. 18 Infection rates are climbing. In the absence of effective treatment, the parts of sub-Saharan Africa with the highest infection rates face a staggering loss of life. Adding the heavy mortality from the epidemic to the normal mortality of older adults means that countries like Botswana and Zimbabwe will lose half of their adult populations within a decade. 19 The HIV epidemic is not an isolated phenomenon. It is affecting every facet of life and every sector of the economy. Food production per person, already lagging in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa, is now falling fast as the number of field workers shrinks. As food production falls, hunger intensifies among the dependent groups of children and the elderly. The downward spiral in family welfare typically begins when the first adult falls victim to the illness—a development that is doubly disruptive because for each person who is sick and unable to work, another adult must care for that person. 20 The massive loss of young adults to AIDS is already beginning to cut into economic activity. Rising worker health insurance costs in industry are shrinking or even eliminating company profit margins, forcing some firms into the red. In addition, companies are facing increased sick leave, decreased productivity, and the burden of recruiting and training replacements when employees die. 21 Education is also affected. The ranks of teachers are being decimated by the virus. In 2001, for instance, Zambia lost 815 primary school teachers to AIDS, the equivalent of 45 percent of new teachers trained that year. With students, when one or both parents die, more children are forced to stay home simply because there is not enough money to buy books and to pay school fees. Universities are also feeling the effects. At the University of Durbin in South Africa, for example, 25 percent of the student body is HIV-positive. The effects on health care are equally devastating. In many hospitals in eastern and southern Africa, a majority of the beds are now occupied by AIDS victims, leaving less space for those with other illnesses. Already overworked doctors and nurses are often stretched to the breaking point. With health care systems now unable to provide even basic care, the toll of traditional disease is also rising. Life expectancy is dropping not only because of AIDS, but also because of the deterioration in health care. 23 The epidemic is leaving millions of orphans in its wake. Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to have 18.4 million “AIDS orphans” by 2010—children who have lost at least one parent to the disease. There is no precedent for millions of street children in Africa. The extended family, once capable of absorbing orphaned children, is now itself being decimated by the loss of adults, leaving children, often small ones, to take care of themselves. For some girls, the only option is what has come to be known as “survival sex.” Michael Grunwald of the Washington Post writes from Swaziland, “In the countryside, teenage Swazi girls are selling sex—and spreading HIV—for $5 an encounter, exactly what it costs to hire oxen for a day of plowing.” 24 The HIV epidemic in Africa is now a development problem, a matter of whether a society can continue to function as needed to support its people. It is a food security problem. It is a national security problem. It is an educational system problem. And it is a foreign investment problem. Stephen Lewis, the U.N. Special Envoy for HIV/AIDS in Africa, says that the epidemic can be curbed and the infection trends can be reversed, but it will take help from the international community. The failure to fully fund the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, he says, is “mass murder” by complacency. 25 Writing in the New York Times, Alex de Waal, an adviser to the U.N. Economic Commission for Africa and to UNICEF, sums up the effects of the epidemic well: “Just as HIV destroys the body’s immune system, the epidemic of HIV and AIDS has disabled the body politic. As a result of HIV, the worst hit African countries have undergone a social breakdown that is now reaching a new level: African societies’ capacity to resist famine is fast eroding. Hunger and disease have begun reinforcing each other. As daunting as the prospect is, we will have to fight them together, or we will succeed against neither.”
AIDS is on the march in Africa: each year two million Africans die from the disease and three million more become infected
Council on Foreign Relations Task Force on Africa Policy, 2006 [MORE THAN HUMANITARIANISM: A STRATEGIC APPROACH TOWARD AFRICA, 06, 63.]
There are no strong, credible signs that the pandemic's accelerated march is slowing. Each year, almost two million Africans die from AIDS, while over three million more become newly infected.
AIDS is ripping Sub-Saharan Africa apart—two thirds of the 30 million people with AIDS are in Sub-Saharan Africa:
Africa News, 2007[(June 19, 2007, Lexis, accessed June 20, 2007)]
Of the global total of 30 million persons living with HIV by 1997 some two-thirds (21 million) were in sub-Saharan Africa. Infection is concentrated in the socially and economically productive groups aged 15-45, with slightly more women infected than men. There are significant differences in the ages of infection for girls and boys with infection occurring at younger ages for girls (with girls and young women in some countries outnumbering boys and young men by factors of 5 or 6 in the age range 15-20). It is estimated that 12 million persons have died from HIV-related illnesses since the start of the epidemic worldwide, of whom approximately 9 million were Africans (UNICEF 2005). HIV/Aids continues to cut into the fabric of African households and societies. It is not uncommon to hear that a quarter to a third of the adult population in several African countries is HIV infected.
SINGER 2002]Peter, John M. Olin Post-doctoral Fellow, Foreign Policy Studies at the Brookings
Institution, Survival, Spring. This is not the bioethicistiactivist Peter Singer.)]
A recurring themes at all of these meetings was the new danger presented by the epidemic, not just in terms of direct victims of the disease itself, but also to international security. Speaking at the UN Security Council session, James Wolfensohn, the head of the World Bank, stated, “Many of us used to think of AIDS as a health issue. We were wrong. ..nothing we have seen is a greater challenge to the mace and stability of African societies than the epidemic of aids...we face a major development crisis, and more than that, a security crisis.”2 Peter Piot, chairman of the Joint UN Program on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS), similarly noted that “Conflicts and AIDS are linked like evil twins.7 In fact, this connection made between the epidemic of AIDS and the danger of increased instability and war was also one of the few continuities between the way the Clinton and Bush administration foreign policy teams saw the world. Basing its assessment on a CIA report that discussed an increased prospects of “revolutionan wars,ethnic wars, genocide. and disruptive regime transitions” because of the disease, the Clinton Administration declared it a “national security threat” in 2000.4 While it was originally accused ofpandering to certain activist groups, by the time of Secretary Powell’s confirmation hearings the next year, the lead foreign policy voice of the new administration had also declared it a “national security problem.” He later affirmed that & presented “a clear and present danger to the world.”5 Similarly, US Under Secretary of State Paula Dobriansky stated that “HIV/AIDS is a threat to security and global stability, plain and simple”6 The looming security implications of AIDS, particularly within Africa, are thus now a baseline assumption of the disease’s danger. However, this threat has barely been fleshed out and the mechanisms by which experts claim that “AIDS has changed the landscape of war” are barely understood. 7 This article seeks to fill this space. AIDS not only threatens to heighten the risks of war, but also multiply its impact. The disease will hollow out military capabilities, as well as state capacities in general, weakening both to the point of failure and collapse. Moreover, at these times of increased vulnerability, the disease also creates new militant recruiting pools, who portend even greater violence, as well putting in jeopardy certain pillars of international stability. In isolation, this increased risk of war around the globe is bad enough. but there are also certain typesof cross-fertilization between the disease and conflict, intensifying the threat. The ultimate dynamic of warfare and AIDS is that their combination makes both more likely and more devastating. It is no overstatement that AIDS is “...the greatest disease challenge that humanity has faced in modem historv.”8 More people will die from the disease than any other disease outbreaks in human history, including the global influenza epidemic of 1918-9 and the Bubonic Plague in the 1300s million worldwide have already been killed and it is projected that at current rates, another 100 million more will he infected just by 2005.
Poverty in the developing world triggers ethnic conflict
Chua 03[Amy, law professor at Harvard, “World on Fire”, p. 195]
Is this wise? Almost by definition, in the developing world today the poor are far more numerous, poverty is far more extreme, and inequality far more glaring than in the Western countries, either today or at analogous historical periods. The ongoing population explosion outside the West only makes things worse. If current World Bank projections are correct, the population in countries now classified as developing is expected to increase from roughly four billion today to roughly eight bil-lion by the year 2050.' Meanwhile, the poor countries of the world lack the West's well-established rule of law traditions. As a result, political transitions in the developing world tend to be marked not by continuity and compromise, but rather by abrupt upheavals, military intervention, violence, and bloodshed. In other words, today's universal policy prescription for "under-development," shaped and promulgated to a large extent by the United States, essentially amounts to this. Take the rawest form of capitalism, slap it together with the rawest form of democracy, and export the two as a package deal to the poorest, most frustrated, most unstable, and most desperate countries of the world. Add market-dominant minorities to the picture, and the instability inherent in this bareknuckle version of free market democracy is compounded a thousandfold by the manipulable forces of ethnic hatred.
3 million die every year from lack of access to water
Partners in Health, 2006. http://www.pih.org/issues/foodwaterhousing.html (acc)
Access to clean water is a basic human right and a prerequisite for improving the health of poor communities. Yet an estimated 1.1 billion people around the world, almost four times the population of the United States, do not have access to safe water. Almost all of them live in developing countries and two-thirds subsist on less than $2 per day.
The costs of lacking clean water to health and to economic and social development are incalculable. Diseases spread by unsafe water cause 3 million deaths a year. Young children are the most likely to suffer and die from these diseases. Diarrhea, primarily a disease of dirty water, is the biggest killer of children under five in poor countries, resulting in 4,000 preventable deaths each day, 1.8 million per year.
Non-access to clean water is like a preventable 9/11 everyday
Allgood, Greg. Ph.D., director of Procter & Gamble’s Children’s Safe Drinking Water program. “Tiny Water Purification Packet Helps Save Lives Worldwide.” Newsrise Science News. http://www.newswise.com/articles/view/518957/ March 21, 2006. CDI 07. MRC
Worldwide, approximately 1.5 million children under age five die each year from simple diarrhea acquired from pathogens found in drinking water, according to public health experts. That translates to about 4,000 children dying each day as a result of contaminated water. “It’s like a 9-11 catastrophe happening everyday worldwide, but this is a tragedy that can be prevented,” says Greg Allgood, Ph.D., director of Procter & Gamble’s Children’s Safe Drinking Water program, which manufactures the packets. The company has been developing the packets since 1995 in collaboration with the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
Unsafe water kills more people than war or terrorism, hurts the economy, and prolongs poverty
HDR. Human Development Report is commissioned by the UN and produced by leading scholars. 2006. Chapter 1 “Ending the Crisis in Water and Sanitation.” http://hdr.undp.org/hdr2006/report.cfm#
At the start of the 21st centurythe violation of the human right to clean water and sanitation is destroying human potential on an epic scale. In today’s increasingly prosperous and interconnected world more children die for want of clean water and a toilet than from almost any other cause. Exclusion from clean water and basic sanitation destroys more lives than any war or terrorist act. It also reinforces the deep inequalities in life chances that divide countries and people within countries on the basis of wealth, gender and other markers for deprivation. Beyond the human waste and suffering, the global deficit in water and sanitation is undermining prosperity and retarding economic growth. Productivity losses linked to that deficit are blunting the efforts of millions of the world’s poorest people to work their way out of poverty and holding back whole countries. Whether viewed from the perspective of human rights, social justice or economic common sense, the damage inflicted by deprivation in water and sanitation is indefensible. Overcoming that deprivation is not just a moral imperative and the right thing to do. It is also the sensible thing to do because the waste of human potential associated with unsafe water and poor sanitation ultimately hurts everybody.
LACK OF CLEAN WATER DIRECTLY IMPEDES WOMEN’S RIGHTS
Obando ’03 (Ana Elena, “Women and Water Privatization” WHRnet, Nov. 2003, http://www.whrnet.org/docs/issue-water.html, accessed 6/26/07)
Water is a fundamental and inalienable human right and a common good that every person and institution of this planet should protect. This resource is, like air, a heritage of humanity and must be declared that way. Water is not merchandize and no person or institution should be allowed to get rich from the sale of it. It should not be privatized, marketed, exported or transferred to a few multinational companies, which today already control 90 percent of privatized water utilities. For the GATT, NAFTA and FTAA, water is a commodity, an investment, a simple service for commercial use and profit. Women are the most affected by this crisis. More than half of the 1.2 billion people who do not have access to water are women and girls. The IV World Women’s Conference of the United Nations in 1995 contains one chapter in its Action Plan about women and environment in which the right to water was incorporated, although it was not analyzed how the water shortage or contamination disproportionately affect women. However, later investigations, as the one sponsored by UNIFEM, have verified that “… in most developing countries women are responsible for water management at the domestic and community level. It was also estimated that women and girls use more than 8 hours a day traveling from 10 to 15 km. to transport between 20 and 15 liters of water in each trip”. Men, especially in rural areas, do not play the role of getting or carrying water. Their relation with water has more to do with agricultural work, and with the storage of water. This gender inequality has implications in women’s daily life, from a rights based perspective, since the carrying of water not only causes them physical disorders, but also makes it difficult for them to get involved in activities such as education, income generation, politics, leisure and recreation.
Here are some cards I had sitting in a few word documents and I thought what the heck, I'll post them. I really think there should be a water (other than war) impact section, I think I've provided enough cards for a start on I think.