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spmancuso

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spmancuso last won the day on September 1 2007

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About spmancuso

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  • Name
    Steve Mancuso
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    Oxford, OH
  1. Version

    Table of Contents Two new Midterms scenarios and dozens of pages of new internal link evidence. One reason, among many, that the Midterms DA is such a good scenario is that it doesn't depend on the plan being passed through Congress. Actions by the President alone would affect his political standing and that is key to the Congressional races - great ev. on that in this file. Here are the two scenarios:(1) GOP Good. The retirement of Indiana Senator Evan Bayh now means the Democrats are likely to lose control of the Senate. The plan boosts Democrats by adopting a poverty-related plan which is supported by young voters - who are the key swing voters in the midterm elections. Republican control of the Senate is good because it would block Obama's nuclear agenda which will stagnate necessary nuclear modernization. Bottom line impact is nuclear war. The key new twist here is the focus on young voters. All other groups will turn out in the midterms in predictable ways, but young voters are apathetic and new to the process. They need to be energized by actions by the Democrats. Young voters liked Obama in part because of his pledge to address the problem of poverty. (2) Democrats Good. Democrats would still win control of the Congress if the election was held today, but their grip is less sure than ever. The plan hurts Democrats because taking care of the needy has become less popular with the middle class due to the state of the economy. Democratic control of Congress is good because they will support President Obamas nuclear agenda. This will reduce the risk of nuclear war. There are also some updates in this file defending the concept of nuclear winter - there is a new computer model that supports the earlier work done in the 1980s. Obviously, this file is also useful for the affirmative because the evidence for the DA one way answers the DA the other way. It contains affirmative uniqueness arguments, affirmative link answers and link turns, as well as imapct answers and turns. There are also some stand-alone affirmative answers.

    10.00 USD

  2. Version

    Table of Contents A scenario ripped from today's headlines. In his State of the Union speech last night, President Obama advanced several proposals to help small businesses create new jobs. This edition of the TF concerns those proposals. The shell: President Obama needs his political capital to get his New Jobs Tax Credits passed. The plan drains his strength by passing an unpopular plan - public opinion has turned solidly against helping the poor with social services. Failure to pass the jobs bill will lead to a double-dip recession. The shell has two impacts (1) Global Depression and (2) Russian Collapse. Both end with huge bottom-line impacts.The TF also includes an extensive affirmative file to answer the New Jobs Tax Credit impact - mostly focused on the debate about whether the tax credit is a sound economic policy. Plenty of think tanks, from all political stripes, are skeptical the tax credit will work.Also, you'll find updates for the Midterm Elections scenario, including how the State of the Union might affect it. Also there are a few updates on scenarios like Afghanistan, Trade and Financial Regulation. Bernanke is being voted on today, so that scenario should be irrelevant this weekend.

    10.00 USD

  3. Version

    Table of Contents Must have, XL file for a big weekend. Tuesday night's Surprise Senate retirements, the Christmas Day terrorism incident, yesterday's new Obama approval rating polling - all of these factors impact politics scenarios and this file covers them, on both sides. The new shell is a GOP Good scenario on Immigration Reform. Obama's popularity has declined just enough that it now looks like the GOP will take back control of the House of Representatives, but just barely (1/6). The plan helps Democrats by passing a policy (a win) that will increase enthusiasm for them among their liberal base (base key to midterm success) (1/4). Republican control of the House is desirable to block immigration reform (1/4) that would increase both legal and illegal immigration into the US (12/22). The bottom line impact is global warming. I've also included an updated top-level shell (Uniqueness and Link) for GOP Bad. Democrats are still holding on to control of the Congress, but could lose that if Obama's popularity slips further (yes the 1/6 card says that). New surveys (12/17) show that Public opinion has turned against support services for the poor, so the plan would be unpopular, hurting Obama and the Democrats. You just need to plug in your favorite Obama Agenda Good impact, or use the one from the previous TF. The midterm election politics scenario is becoming increasingly important because of the way in which health care reform has bogged down the traditional political capital/agenda debates. Midterms allows you to skip that and head right into link and uniqueness arguments about the popularity of the plan. The uniqueness issue is so close that if you master it, you can run both GOP Good and GOP Bad based on which way the plan links the best. If you decide to go this way, I recommend you buy the 12/10 TF because it included Midterms scenarios both ways and an extensive link file.You need this week's file for the affirmative anyhow. Since it goes both directions, by definition it includes link turns, uniqueness answers, internal link turns and impact turns. There is also a sweet card that a thousand things between now and November will impact the race. Also included: updates on cap-and-trade, extensive coverage of the status of Obama's political capital ("on a knife's edge," "drained day-by-day") and support from his base. Good luck this weekend!

    10.00 USD

  4. Version

    Table of Contents This file contains a new scenario based on the House passage of the Financial Regulation bill this week. President Obama lacks the political capital to get it passed in the Senate. The plan gives Obama a boost in popularity and approval which enables him to get it through the Senate. The Financial Regulation bill will stifle lending and consumer spending, throwing the economy into a Double Dip recession, leading to a much worse economic decline or even Great Depression. The file also includes important updates on Afghanistan Troop Deployment, Copenhagen and Cap/Trade, Health Care and Midterm elections.Finally, there is an extensive section on Obama's approval rating. Several polls came out at the end of this week placing his approval at or just below 50%. There are fantastic cards saying this 50% threshold is crucial for him to be able to get his agenda passed. No matter what politics scenario you are running, this evidence will help you a lot.

    10.00 USD

  5. Version

    Table of Contents This week's TF is a comprehensive Midterm Elections file. It's hard to come up with an Obama Agenda DA this week that isn't about health care and that issue is in great flux. A Midterm Elections scenario gives you a new politics approach that escapes the health care trap. It also gives you great flexibility since the uniqueness can be defended well either way. That gives you the important flexibility of choosing the link direction that works best with the specific plan. You'll find two shells - one for each way. Version one says Democrats will win the Midterms now, the plan threatens that by overcrowding Obama's agenda, leading to a GOP victory. Republican control of Congress would undercut the EPA climate change policy, with a global warming impact. The second version says the GOP will win now, the plan threatens that by passing a plan the Democrats can use to prove they care about the economic costs of the recession. GOP control is good because they won't give up in Afghanistan. Bottom line impact is India-Pakistan nuclear war. This file includes many well-developed link arguments, not just the ones in the shell. "Democrats Good" links include government spending, Obama approval, independent voters, and agenda overcrowding. "Democrats Bad" links include helping the poor, helping undocumented workers, liberal plans, and popular plans. You can import your own favorite Obama Agenda impact if you want. Also included in this file is a Business Confidence impact to Democrats Bad.Even if you don't want to run Midterms right now, this file is important because of all the link and impact work, which will not change. Because the file is set up to run "both ways" it has as much affirmative evidence as negative evidence, so you can play defense against other teams that do run Midterms. Some overnight updates (10/10) on health care are included as well.

    10.00 USD

  6. Version

    Table of Contents President Obama must use his scarce political capital to pass climate change legislation by December in time for the Copenhagen Climate Change conference. If U.S. legislation has not passed through Congress by then, the conference will collapse. Copenhagen is our last chance to get meaningful international agreement on reducing global warming. The evidence for this is very recent: uniqueness (10.18), Obama capital key (10.16), US key to Copenhagen (10.12), Copenhagen key to fighting warming (10.19). Even the shell impact card - fate of the planet - is brand new (10.20). There is much in this file for the affirmative, too, beyond answers to the Copenhagen scenario. You'll find nearly 20 pages of recent affirmative answers to an increasingly popular politics scenario on the Middle East peace process. The file also includes several new "winners-win" cards to use to turn any political capital internal link, including a great all-purpose uniqueness card. Finally, the file covers some generic affirmative and negative politics ground: whether Obama's "war" on FOX News will help or hurt his agenda, whether the GOP has a chance in the upcoming midterms, and, of course, health care reform.

    10.00 USD

  7. Version

    Table of Contents A new strategic twist on the Health Care DA, taking advantage of the brand new uniqueness evidence generated by yesterday's (9/28) votes in the Senate Finance Committee. Evidence from before then is irrelevant now. The argument: In the status quo Democrats will inevitably pass Health Care Reform - the only question is whether it will include a Public Option. The Senate Finance Committee's rejection of the Public Option makes it unlikely now. The plan would be a momentum-generating win for Obama, making it more likely that he'll get other things he wants - like the Public Option. The Public Option will drive down health care system profits, making it impossible for drug companies to generate enough revenues to do the vital R&D needed to combat infectious diseases. Extinction impact. The real trick of this scenario is that you are shielded from the vast majority of the Health Reform Good turns because you are defending that Reform is inevitable, just without the Public Option. Most of the impact turns link to increased insurance coverage or regulating the health insurance industry. Those parts of the Reform will pass anyhow. Several cards are included to make that argument. The other sweet thing about this file is you can use the bulk of the evidence on the Affirmative to answer the standard Health Care DA that everyone else is running. The file also includes updates on Climate Change - including evidence on both sides about the Senate's new legislative proposal (released 9/30). Also included are updates on the Middle East - including both sides about Hamas' new unity overture to Fatah (9/30). There are several pages of affirmative answers to the Public Option scenario as well.

    10.00 USD

  8. Version

    Table of Contents In the next few weeks, the Obama Administration faces a crucial decision regarding Afghanistan -- whether or not to pursue an additional troop commitment and ask the Congress to support that expansion. Opposition to the war is growing and while the Congress is likely to support the President now, their backing is by no means assured. The plan will be controversial for a variety of reasons and will sap the political clout the President needs to get his troop request passed. An increase in American troops is vital to prevent instability in Afghanistan from spilling over into extremism in Pakistan. A coup in Pakistan - which is made more likely by Taliban success in Afghanistan - would prompt a nuclear exchange with India. The evidence for this scenario is ultra-recent - the Afghanistan uniqueness, internal link and scenario cards have all been written since the workshops ended. Even the shell "poverty link" card is from 2009 and written in the context of the current economic conditions. The scenario is stronger than in the past because it now concerns a specific request the President will make of the Congress that he will have to use his political capital to win. The evidence proving a connection between the fight for a domestic agenda item and a building support for a foreign war is stellar. There are almost 20 pages of affirmative evidence: uniqueness, link turns, issue-specific uniqueness, internal link answers, Afghanistan scenario answers and Pakistan scenario answers. Good luck at Wake Forest and Greenhill!

    10.00 USD

  9. Version

    Table of Contents President Obama needs political capital to fight off efforts by Democrats to prematurely pull out or limit our troops in Afghanistan. The bottom line impact is Pakistan stability with a loose nukes scenario, India-Pakistan conflict. Also included are affirmative impact and internal link answers. Plus there are generic political capital and approval ratings updates that you can use for any politics scenario right now.

    10.00 USD

  10. Version

    Table of Contents This scenario is ripped from this week's news. Possibly as early as next week, President Obama will roll out a new proposal to resolve the Toxic Assets that remain on banks' balance sheets. This new proposal will cost money and require every bit of his political capital to pass. Passage is the key to jumpstart economic recovery and avoid an impending collapse and possible depression. The shell is incredibly current. The uniqueness evidence (3.15) says he has to act now before his popularity falls further. The on-fire internal link card (3.17) says it will take all of his political capital. The internal link to the impact (3.16) says this policy is key to stabilizing the economy. And a new bottom line impact card (3.18) says a prolonged downturn will see nuclear anarchy in Pakistan, war with India, Chinese civil war, Japanese rearmament and Russian expansion. Most of the extension evidence is from this week as well. In addition to 10+ pages of affirmative answers to Toxic Assets, there are also Negative update files for the Afghanistan and Health Care scenarios.

    10.00 USD

  11. Version

    Table of Contents If you're looking for a brand new politics scenario, this one will work. It's based on reaction to Obama's agenda, as announced this week in his budget. Story: Obama's agenda is currently threatened by a coalition of Republicans and moderate Democrats (3/2 - House and 3/4 - Senate). This is good since Obama's agenda will crush the economy (3/3). The plan provides Obama a win - and the more he wins the stronger he gets (3/3). If Obama's agenda fails then the economy will recovery shortly (3/3). The bottom line depression impact is the new Mead card (2/4). Most of the file answers commonly run scenarios. There are 15 pages of new answers to Cap and Trade - including some solid impact defense - states will solve climate change, federal regulation - not legislation - will solve, permit markets are fatally flawed. There are also answers to: Boeing Refueling Tanker, Health Care, Cramdown, Iraq Withdrawal; and some evidence on both sides of the issue of whether repealing Don't Ask, Don't Tell will weaken Obama.There are also a few pages of excellent evidence for a focus DA saying that Obama needs to focus on the economy and put energy off until next year.

    10.00 USD

  12. Version

    Table of Contents 116 pages of performance enhancing evidence. 1 brand new scenario with shell. 2 updated shells from past TF. Plus answers to some of the other recently released scenarios that were popular in college tournaments this past weekend.Brand new this week is Afghanistan Troop Escalation: Declining political capital this week has caused President Obama to put his plan to escalate American troop involvement in Afghanistan on hold. That’s good because more American troops would destabilize Pakistan, causing an Indo-Pak war. The affirmative plan – alternative energy – is popular with progressives in the public and Congress, allowing the President to revive his military plans. Very tight shell to a big bottom line impact. This TF also includes a Middle East Peace DA, with a new shell, updating the 1/21 and 1/28 TF. Obama’s political capital is essential for reaching a regional peace agreement. The plan drains his strength, leading to a Middle East war. You’ll find evidence both ways on this week’s Israeli election, the role of Hamas in the peace process after the Gaza attack and new evidence for Obama Key. Includes solid affirmative answers saying that Middle East peace is impossible. The final shell this week is an update of the TARP 2 DA from the 1/28 TF. Obama will get the stimulus package passed this week, but without parallel improvements in the financial system the economy will sink into a depression. The next bailout package will be controversial with Democrats and the GOP, so Obama will need PC to get it passed, but the stimulus has drained his strength to the breaking point. This shell features the “new Mead card” for a bottom line impact – depression = global war. You’ll find answers to “Buy American” (although that impact will likely be resolved by the weekend with the passage of the stimulus conference report) and Health Care Reform (the impact of the Daschle withdrawal both ways, plus impact extensions and answers to the pharmaceutical industry impact's internal link).Last, but not least, 15+ pages of updated top level uniqueness evidence for all politics DAs. Evidence both ways on whether Obama has taken a fatal hit with all he has had to do to get the stimulus passed. Finally, answers to a popular turn in college rounds about McCain – the plan appeases McCain who helps bring GOP support to Obama’s agenda. Good luck this weekend!

    5.00 USD

  13. Version

    Table of Contents The Chinese economy is on the brink of collapsing and threat of significant political unrest is rising. Consequently, there is a very real existential threat to the Chinese government. The affirmative plan hurts the pivotal Chinese coal industry by lowering the global price of coal through reduced demand. Unemployment in export industries is a key trigger of the threat to the Chinese regime. Unrest and instability in China cause an accidental nuclear launch (among many other large impacts). The vast majority of this evidence is from 2009 or late 2008. There is impact evidence from the new 2/2009 Mead article. It basically works like an oil prices DA except it's about coal - China is a large exporter of coal. There aren't many of these coal DAs being run, so there's a good chance you'll catch affirmatives unprepared this weekend. Impact scenarios include: Chinese attack Taiwan, Chinese Nationalism, Global Depression, Accidental Nuclear Launch, Chinese Soft Power. If you already run a China impact on the aff. or neg. this file will update and diversify what you can say. This DA links primarily to any plan that encourages energy that is an alternative to coal - so any electricity plan. There are also links to Chinese agriculture exports and oil prices. In other words it is links to a very high percentage of affirmative plans. There are also affirmative answers.

    16.00 USD

  14. Version

    Table of Contents More than 100 pages of new evidence, not backfiles. Mix of negative and affirmative. An all new scenario - TARP II.The brand new scenario this week, that literally appeared yesterday, is TARP II (30 pages). The fiscal stimulus will pass inevitably, but that won't help fix the banking and financial system. Only a second major TARP program will accomplish that, and it would be much more controversial than the Stimulus. A major Congressional leader said yesterday that TARP II would only pass if Obama had enough political capital for it. Brand new shell internal link evidence on the difficulty of Obama passing a long-term alternative energy program. Impact is the global economy.20+ pages of negative and affirmative updates on China bashing - reactions to Treasury Secretary Nominee Geithner saying that China was a "currency manipulator" in his confirmation hearing. Answers both ways on the role of economic interdependence, Obama's pragmatism toward China, and some impact extensions.15+ pages on the Gaza/Middle East scenario, mostly affirmative, but some negative. Good uniqueness updates that Obama is using his political capital there now. Great affirmative answers about the futility of Obama's approach to the Middle East. All from the last couple of days. 15+ pages on the Stimulus bill, a few pages on Iraq withdrawal.10+ pages of updates on generic internal link evidence - Obama's political capital, popularity, bipartisanship, flip-flop, plus evidence on both sides of the question of whether executive orders expend political capital.

    10.00 USD

  15. Version

    Table of Contents A big file for a big weekend, containing almost all brand new evidence and offering post-inauguration updates on the popular scenarios of Stimulus, Health Care, Iraq, generic internal links, and a new negative Gaza peace scenario. An essential TF for both sides this weekend. Highlights:30+ pages on a brand new Gaza Ceasefire scenario, including a 1NC shell. The story goes like this: Obama needs to minimize domestic controversy to maintain his political capital and attention on the Gaza ceasefire. The bottom line impact is Middle East nuclear war. Extremely short time frame. The 1NC internal link evidence specifically talks about Obama's political capital in relation to addressing the Gaza situation. 30+ pages on Affirmative answers to the very popular Stimulus DA, including a unique "Size Matters" turn that argues Obama's high political capital prevents compromise with Democrats who want to increase the size of the package. Obama's stimulus is too small, a larger one is necessary for it to work. Also extensive files on how the stimulus will fail, how it is inevitable, and impact answers. There are also some negative updates for Stimulus. 20+ pages of super-recent updates for negative politics internal link arguments: popularity, political capital, bipartisanship, moderates, winners-win. These can be used with any of your previous (or new) politics scenarios. Finally, affirmative updates on the Early Iraq Withdrawal scenario, Health Care and a couple pages on Global Warming.

    10.00 USD

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