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Squirrelloid

Finally hope for Venezuela?

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http://thefederalist.com/2015/12/17/freedom-brews-in-venezuela/

 

As those of you who debated or coached the Latin America topic are probably aware, Venezuela was in dire straits by the time the topic ended.  It only got worse the following year.  Much worse.  I have never been sadder to be right in my predictions (nor as surprised for them to come to pass so quickly) - that Venezuela was going to collapse.  

 

The economic disaster that is Venezuela is not over.  But the political disaster may finally be seeing the light at the end of the tunnel.  We'll have to see what the next presidential election brings, but my money is on Chavismo being dealt a deathblow.

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That article is pretty light on reasons to think that because the people want good democracy, that's what they'll get, in my opinion. I don't know how piecemeal reform away from socialism is supposed to work. If the judiciary is still packed with Chavez's people, for example, doesn't that make reform much more impossible? Why be so optimistic now all of a sudden? Not necessarily saying optimism is incorrect, just that I don't understand the reasons for it very well. Isn't there a possibility that this election results in very little actual change?

Edited by Chaos

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That article is pretty light on reasons to think that because the people want good democracy, that's what they'll get, in my opinion. I don't know how piecemeal reform away from socialism is supposed to work. If the judiciary is still packed with Chavez's people, for example, doesn't that make reform much more impossible? Why be so optimistic now all of a sudden? Not necessarily saying optimism is incorrect, just that I don't understand the reasons for it very well. Isn't there a possibility that this election results in very little actual change?

 

If you've been following the economic state of Venezuela, my guess is that many in the government are reluctant to crack down too hard on a clearly transformative political event because if there's an open revolution or military coup, their heads may just be on the chopping block if they stick their necks out.  And Maduro doesn't have the same pull that Chavez did - his hold on power is weaker and loyalty to him is less.  The problem with ruling via cult of personality is the basis of that power dies with the person.

 

We'll have to see.  This could still end disastrously.

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It sounds like there's a huge potential profit to be made by smuggling US dollars into Venezuela. I bet if you had enough startup capital to allocate a sufficient amount of money for bribes, this could be a decent get rich quick scheme. Alternatively, find someone with diplomatic immunity, and use them as your go-between.

Edited by Chaos

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