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What are the viable politics scenarios currently? I am aware of TPA/TAA, but I am wondering if there is anything else out there?

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That's a lot of effort invested in Ex-Im Bank for a scenario that's dead June 30th.  (If nothing else, the Impacts empirically denied arguments will be really good if it hasn't passed by then).

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What do you all think the politics scenarios for next year are going to be?

Terrible :)

 

It's actually a shame because most cases this year will link to politics scenarios a lot better than usual--surveillance is in the news, and is politically a lot more high profile than ocean policy, Latin American economic policy (excepting Immigration), and transportation. But the U.S. Government isn't going to be doing anything of importance for the next school year, with Obama a checked-out lame duck, the 2016 candidates not wanting to take stands on anything, and Congress generally unwilling to do anything of interest.

 

The best I can think of is a convoluted election scenario based on Rand Paul, since he's the most anti-surveillance candidate on either side. Impacts would probably be foreign policy related, since he's also generally isolationist. Different forms could be:

 

U: Rand Paul unlikely to win now.

L: Plan makes surveillance a top issue, gets Paul elected

IL: Paul will refuse to fight ISIS

I: ISIS gets nukes and kills us all

 

U: Rand Paul likely to win now.

L: Plan solves surveillance, makes it a nonissue, cutting Paul's support

IL: Non-Paul candidate gets elected, uses military force against an expansionist Russia

I: Nuke war with Russia

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95% of politics for the last like.... 8 years are terrible.

Political Capital isn't true for Obama and any politics arguments with that as the internal link are terrible.

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95% of politics for the last like.... 8 years are terrible.

Political Capital isn't true for Obama and any politics arguments with that as the internal link are terrible.

Straightforward political capital is always terrible. Backlash, on the other hand, came really close to happening on TPA/TAA--Republicans were really close to bolting because they didn't trust Obama's good faith on free trade. Had Obama passed some huge climate policy advocated by a typical Aff last year, chances are good Republicans couldn't have been kept in line to vote for TPA.

 

There could still be room on a TPP scenario for the next vote, the up or down vote on the treaty itself. There also could be room for an ISIS Authorization of Use of Military Force scenario (Obama gets rid of surveillance, GOP doesn't trust him to prosecute the war on ISIS as a result). I expect election scenarios will be more fun, though.

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Straightforward political capital is always terrible. Backlash, on the other hand, came really close to happening on TPA/TAA--Republicans were really close to bolting because they didn't trust Obama's good faith on free trade. Had Obama passed some huge climate policy advocated by a typical Aff last year, chances are good Republicans couldn't have been kept in line to vote for TPA.

I agree and disagree - I think the backlash link is either inevitable or it doesn't matter because they will ALWAYS backlash against Obama.

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How do you distinguish between a PolCap disad and a backlash da? I mean, is TPA typically backlash and Iran usually PolCap (as examples)? I'm a little confused there

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How do you distinguish between a PolCap disad and a backlash da? I mean, is TPA typically backlash and Iran usually PolCap (as examples)? I'm a little confused there

PolCap: Obama has a magical ammount of capital that he is able to spend on different things, the plan drains that magical capital

Backlash: Republicans hate the plan and perceive it as an Obama bill, so they will fuck with the next Obama bill.

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I agree and disagree - I think the backlash link is either inevitable or it doesn't matter because they will ALWAYS backlash against Obama.

 

But they didn't...they passed TPA over Congressional Democratic opposition.

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But they didn't...they passed TPA over Congressional Democratic opposition.

I'm talking about in terms of affirmatives

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