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Ocean DA's/CP's

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 I have started writing off case for next years ocean's topic and I was wondering what DA's and CP's all of you think are going to be essential to combating common ocean affirmatives. So far I have wrote an OPEC DA and an Industrialization bad DA. Please contribute feedback everything is valued.

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I'd put together an oil (prices) DA because I could see a lot of people reusing oil cases from last year. You could also look at LNG along the same line of thought.

Keeping with the energy theme an energy prices DA would also be appropriate. You could also make a spills DA.

 

For a CP I guess alternate actor would be pretty viable but I'm not a fan.

I honestly think an advantage CP would be your best bet.

 

If people start doing stuff like taking normally untopical affs but doing them on the ocean (like space elevators) then a CP that does it on land with a net benefit of like hurricanes or tsunamis or something else ocean solvency related would make sense.

Edited by SnarkosaurusRex
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I'd prep a few generic DAs with links to specific geographic areas of ocean development. Like a China lashout DA against South China Sea affs, for example (admittedly, a lot of these may end up just being impact turns, so offense might be problematic). Naval overstretch DAs or naval lashout DAs might be good, or bio-d disads, all depending on the aff. Oil will link to a lot of affs. It's not a military topic, but ocean militarization might be a decent disad depending on the aff's advantages.

 

I can't imagine what politics links might look like... dipcap might have a (more) coherent link story if it's a treaty aff.

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I am writing a really strong oil DA and for the first tournament I am going to be using a couple generic DA's i.e. Russia,China,Politics

I am sad that Mercosur won't be as useful this year, because most advantages won't be latin american relations.

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I am writing a really strong oil DA and for the first tournament I am going to be using a couple generic DA's i.e. Russia,China,Politics

I am sad that Mercosur won't be as useful this year, because most advantages won't be latin american relations.

China SOI?  How would that apply?

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Ocean Acidification DA? Politics makes it resurgence again. Also thinking about what possible effects it might have on the Shipping Industry. 

CPs will mostly be International Actors for generics and some CP specific to energy affirmatives.

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@ Oil DA guy, these might help (scenarios)

High oil prices key to Putin’s political stability

Judah 13 (Ben, Fellow – European Stability Initiative, Moscow Correspondent – Reuters, Russian Politics Research Fellow – European Council on Foreign Relations, B.A. in Modern History and Politics – Oxford University, “Five Traps for Putinâ€, GLOBAL TRANSITIONS PROSPERITY STUDIES, Legatum Institute, March, http://www.li.com/docs/default-source/publications/five-traps-for-putin---ben-judah-march-2013-(legatum-institute).pdf, Deech)

 

More recently, Putin has abandoned carefully balanced budgets, largely for political reasons. Although currency reserves remain high—Russia has the third largest reserves in the world—and government borrowing is still relatively low, state spending has been rising steadily since the 2009 crisis, and now accounts for 41 percent of GDP.41 Between 2007 and 2010, funding for the Russian provinces increased by $58 billion, rising from 5.7 percent to 9.2 percent of GDP.42 Again in 2010, pensions were hiked 50 percent. The following year pensions were raised by 10 percent again with a 6.5 percent across the board increase in public sector wages.43 The Kremlin has also announced a ten-year, $613 billion spending programme for the military, a policy largely designed to maintain employment in Russia’s many single-industry military production towns.44 During the 2012 campaign, Putin doubled military and police salaries and promised $160 billion worth of giveaways.45 As a result, the Kremlin now must rely on a much higher oil price in order to balance its budget. In 2007, $40 a barrel would have sufï¬ced.46 By 2012, more than $110 was required.47 Should the price of oil now fall for any substantial length of time, Russia could be forced to return to large scale borrowing, even cut beneï¬ts or implement some form of austerity, thus undermining support for the regime in the provinces and among low-wage earners. It is ironic, but Putin’s support now depends upon the one thing he cannot control: the price of oil. This economic populism looks particularly reckless in the light of Russia’s unreformed pension system, its slowing growth and its shrinking trade surplus. If no alterations are made, government expenditure on pensions alone will rise from 9 percent of GDP to 14 percent of GDP by 2030.48 Adding further uncertainty is the fact that Russia is slowly running out of cheap oil. Its current reserves are of declining quality and its huge potential ï¬elds lie in extremely difï¬cult terrain in Eastern Siberia or under the Arctic Ocean. Similar problems are looming in the gas sector as LNG and shale gas pose long-term problems for Gazprom’s business model. Russia is set to stay an energy superpower, but the best years of the “double boomâ€â€”high oil production and high oil prices—are over. At the a VTB bank investor conference in 2012 there was much talk about Russian growth slowing, perhaps as low as an annual 2 percent. As a result of these changes, economic policy, once a source of stability and consensus, has increasingly divided the Russian political and business elite. Not since the arrest of Mikhail Khodorkovsky in 2003 have there been such vocal disagreements. Alexey Kudrin, the former ï¬nance minister, has publicly warned that unless the Kremlin reigns in spending it will be exposed to dangerous economic shocks. Igor Sechin, chief executive of the state energy giant Rosneft, has also gone out of his way to obstruct Medvedev’s ambitious privatization agenda. Other leading ofï¬cials have been openly at odds with one another as well. These bitter disputes are corroding Putin’s once unchallenged role as arbiter in chief. Not only is the Russian economy vulnerable to an economic crisis thanks to state spending, in other words, but the Russian president is vulnerable too.

Outdated nuclear infrastructure in Russia puts US at risk

Mosher 3 (David, Senior Policy Analyst in Nuclear Weapons Policy – RAND, “Excessive Forceâ€, RAND Corporation, Fall, http://www.rand.org/pubs/periodicals/rand-review/issues/fall2003/force.html, Deech)

 

Russian strategic nuclear forces remain the only current threat to the national existence of the United States. Although the risk of deliberate attack from Russia has sharply fallen since the end of the Cold War, the risk of an accidental or unauthorized use of Russian nuclear forces has arguably risen. For example, Russia’s early-warning system has severely deteriorated, as has the country’s ability to keep its mobile (and thus survivable) nuclear forces deployed. There are additional concerns about the state of Russia’s command-and-control system and the rise of separatist violence.  None of the nuclear arms control treaties after the Cold War have dealt with the issue of accidental or unauthorized use of nuclear weapons. Instead, these treaties have concentrated on reducing the total number of nuclear warheads each side wields. While these reductions are extremely important for improving the overall U.S.-Russian relationship, they do little to ease the risks of an accidental or unauthorized nuclear launch. This is because those risks stem from the nuclear postures and underlying nuclear doctrines of each nation, which remain firmly rooted in the hostile relationship forged during the Cold War.

 

Putin's leadership key to nuclear modernization

Bugriy 13 (Maksym, Correspondent – Ukrainian Week, “Russia is Arming Itself, but Against Whom?â€, Ukrainian Week, 3-31, http://ukrainianweek.com/World/76030, Deech)

 

The intensification of military reforms was an ideological cornerstone of Putin’s 2012 presidential campaign. In a programmatic article, he wrote about a new global trend: increasingly frequent attempts to resolve economic issues and obtain access to resources through force. Thus, his claim is that Russia should not “lead anyone into temptation by being weakâ€. As he was preparing his return to the presidency, Putin announced “unprecedented programmes to develop the Armed Forces and modernize the defence industrial complexâ€, declaring that some 23 trillion roubles (US $750 bn) would be allocated to this end in the next decade.  Tellingly, the key programmatic theses in the article begin with stressing the need to reform strategic analysis for national defence. The goal is to have foresight, an ability to estimate threats 30-50 years in advance. As far as a security strategy is concerned, the Kremlin has embraced the classical theory of nuclear containment as its main mechanism. At the same time, Russia will be following a contemporary worldwide trend of producing high-precision long-range conventional weapons that can also later be used for strategic containment purposes.  READ ALSO: Do the Russians Want War?  Moscow’s emphasis on nuclear containment forces it to follow the classical geopolitical conceptions of “air force†and “naval forceâ€. Hence, strategic bombers, joined by drones and fifth-generation fighter aircraft, will form the core of its Air Force. The Navy will be modernized with an emphasis on long-range submarines and securing an “oceanic fleet†with a strategic presence in regions of interest. In March 2012, Vice-Admiral Viktor Churikov, Russia’s Air Force Commander, confirmed the decision to have a permanent operational unit of five to six ships from Russia’s Black Sea fleet stationed in the Mediterranean and said that similar units may be formed to navigate the Pacific and Indian Oceans. According to other sources, Russia was in negotiations with Vietnam this winter about opening military bases there.  Putin is critical of modernization in the form of “spot purchases†of Western equipment (such as the acquisition of French Mistral aircraft carriers) and supports the modernization of Russia’s own military industrial sector. High-priority weaponry and combat equipment for Russia’s Armed Forces include modern nuclear arms (many of the existing missiles have been in service for over 20 years and must be upgraded) and air and space defence systems, complete with new anti-aircraft armaments; high-tech communications, reconnaissance and control systems; unmanned drones; personal combat protection systems; high-precision weapons and the means to counteract them. Russia’s Armed Forces are to focus on nuclear containment and conventional high-precision weapons, developing oceanic naval forces, the Air Force and space defence. The goal is to create a common national system of air and space defence. Together with nuclear containment forces, it will counter the antiaircraft systems of, above all, the USA and NATO. Geographically, Russia will be “a guarantor of stability†in Eurasia: an collective security system for the “Eurasian space†based on the Collective Security Treaty Organization is in the works, and the North (primarily the resource-rich Arctic) and the Asian-Pacific region will be high-priority regions for the Kremlin.

Nuclear modernization key to preventing Russian miscalculation

Mosher 3 (David, Senior Policy Analyst in Nuclear Weapons Policy – RAND, “Excessive Forceâ€, RAND Corporation, Fall, http://www.rand.org/pubs/periodicals/rand-review/issues/fall2003/force.html, Deech)

 

Despite these positive steps, the grave risk of accidental or unauthorized use of nuclear weapons persists for three reasons. First, both the United States and Russia retain their Cold War postures of keeping their nuclear forces on high alert — ready to launch within a few minutes. Inherent in these postures, which promise the rapid delivery of a massive nuclear retaliatory strike, is the distinct risk of an accidental or unauthorized launch.  Second, Russia’s economic difficulties have exacerbated the problem. The country’s mobile nuclear forces — from truck-based and rail-based intercontinental ballistic missiles to submarine-based ballistic missiles — have been decimated in both size and readiness. Far from enhancing U.S. security, these vulnerabilities could push Russia toward a strategy of quickly launching its remaining forces at the first sign of an attack, to ensure their utility. The economic difficulties have also left the early-warning system in tatters and the military with morale and discipline problems. An eroded command-and-control system has increased the risk that nuclear forces could be launched by terrorists or rogue commanders.

------------------------------------

High oil prices key to Qatari soft power

Kinninmont 13 (Jane, Senior Research Fellow – Royal Institute of International Affairs, “From football to military might, how Qatar wields global powerâ€, The Guardian, 2-2, http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/feb/03/qatar-tiny-gulf-state-global-force, Deech)

 

But there are also clear strategies behind Qatar's high-profile investments and its broader foreign-policy activism, which has made it a key player in the Arab Spring and beyond. The priority is to secure the country – and the continuation of the monarchy – from potential threats. Second, as its confidence grows, the royal elite is seeking to play a bigger role on the regional stage. It wants to write itself into the history of the Middle East at a time of huge historical importance. The most straightforward reason for these overseas investments is to diversify the economy. More than half of GDP, and 70% of the government's revenue, comes from gas exports. These should last a long time: their reserves are the third largest in the world, after Iran and Russia, and their population is far tinier. (Wealth is heavily concentrated among the estimated 250,000 citizens; about four times as many immigrants do much of the mundane work.) But there are still risks. Even before the gas runs out, the US shale gas revolution and Australia's growing gas exports could bring down prices, and technological innovations could post further unforeseen risks. They've also learned from the experiences of other Gulf countries, which have seen growth slump – and dissent rise – when oil prices have fallen. Smartly, Qatar is investing a good deal of its money in human capital – education, scientific research, training, art, films. While some of their investments are about straightforward economic returns, others are about country-branding. In London, the Shard, mostly Qatari-owned, brings dramatic visibility. In Paris, by contrast, millions of euros go into economic regeneration in the banlieux, likely to earn the gratitude of many unemployed youth, often from Arab Muslim countries of North Africa where Qatar has a growing influence. What's more, by making themselves useful sources of capital at a time of low growth in the west, the Qataris are also taking out insurance policies with powerful allies who regard them as important for the stability not only of the Middle East, but of western economies. If the ruling Al Thani dynasty were ever to face the kind of threats that Kuwait faced in 1990, larger global players would have a major stake in their survival. Qatar has been the last of the six Gulf monarchies to come into such wealth. Just over a decade ago, it was seen as a backwater. Bankers recall the difficulty Qatar's state companies faced in getting anyone to lend them money. Expatriates who went there were seen as rather eccentric. But between 1998 and 2008, world gas prices tripled and the new Qatar was born. Its use of wealth is a case study in soft power and the acquisition of influence. Al-Jazeera now wins global accolades for its cutting-edge coverage of the Arab Spring. It has been the only Arab broadcaster to make serious inroads with western audiences, challenging the stereotype that globalisation must mean westernisation. The shirts of Barcelona FC, a team that for years accepted no sponsorship, now boast the logo of Qatar Foundation, an organisation headed by the emir's wife, Sheikha Mozah.

And --- that’s key to mediate conflict in Lebanon --- prevents escalation

The Daily Star 12 (“Qatar holding reins of regional politics amid Arab turmoilâ€, 2-7, http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2012/Feb-07/162446-qatar-holding-reigns-of-regional-politics-amid-arab-turmoil.ashx#ixzz1lsJqgyqO)

 

The tiny Gulf state has also led mediation efforts in Lebanon, Sudan, Eritrea and Djibouti, and is also promoting an Afghan peace deal. "All indications point to the fact that Doha has become the capital of Arab politics and diplomacy," said Emirati analyst Abdulkahleq Abdullah. "This will continue in the foreseeable future." On Monday, Doha helped clinch a deal between rival Palestinian factions Hamas and Fatah to name Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas as head of an interim government tasked with organising long-overdue general elections. For months, the two factions failed to agree on the crucial political appointment, threatening the fragile truce signed between them last April. Qatar has also thrown its support behind the Arab uprisings that swept the region, unseating autocrats in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya. In Yemen, President Ali Abdullah Saleh is also on the verge of stepping down. Qatar openly acknowledged sending troops to Libya in support of rebels fighting to overthrow longtime leader Moammar Gadhafi. Qatar "understood at an early stage that there was a new system in the making in the Middle East," said director of the Brookings Doha Centre Salman Shaikh, noting that "it took the initiative to ensure regional stability as much as possible." Qatar's emir, Sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani, is a close US ally who has managed to maintain strong ties with Iran, despite heightened tensions with the Islamic republic's other Gulf neighbours and Western powers over its nuclear programme. Qatar's diplomatic initiatives reach further beyond the Gulf to Africa and South Asia. Last year, Doha brokered a peace agreement between the Sudanese government and rebels in Darfur, though the deal failed to take effect on the ground. In 2008, it brokered a deal between rival Lebanese factions to end an 18-month political feud that exploded into deadly sectarian violence that threatened to push the country towards civil war. Qatar's mediation efforts also helped Eritrea and Djibouti resolve their border dispute in 2008.  Qatar is also playing a crucial role in promoting a Afghan peace deal and is hosting talks between the US and Taliban officials. Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani arrived in Qatar on Monday for discussions about efforts to bring an end to Afghanistan's 11-year conflict. "Qatar continues its effective diplomacy ... within a complicated geopolitical environment," said Shaikh. Meanwhile, Qatar's influential television news channel Al-Jazeera has changed the face of Arab TV journalism since its launch in 1996, with hard-hitting reporting on Middle East conflicts and controversial debates. Smaller countries, such as Qatar and to a smaller extent the United Arab Emirates, "have filled in the (leadership) gaps" left by the traditional diplomatic power-houses of the region, said Abdullah referring to Saudi Arabia and Egypt. However, "it is difficult to assume that Qatar's roles are not approved and supported by Saudi Arabia. At least some of them" if not all, said the analyst. "Saudi Arabia's main problem lies within its own walls -- an ageing leadership with a difficulty in responding and adjusting to developments despite its large diplomatic capabilities," he added. Qatar "also realises that it needs useful partnerships in its diplomatic efforts. This is why it relies on support from its allies such as Saudi Arabia" on complex political issues such as Syria, said Shaikh. Doha has yet to make a breakthrough in its efforts to bridge a widening gap between Washington and Tehran, who have not had formal diplomatic ties since the 1980s.

Lebanese instability causes global war

Stuart 6 (James, Strategist, Negotiator – Alt3.co.uk, “Lebanon – the struggle continues†www.alt3.co.uk/discussion_files/lebanon.htm)

 

Why is this important? Why is Lebanon, which is a small country, so important to the rest of the world? Why should the world pay attention to the undeniable plight of Lebanon?  The world should pay attention because Lebanon is so crucially placed. It is also a democracy in a region infamous for its extremist inspired instability. The murderous extremists who inspire such instability are doing everything in their considerable power to maintain and spread this instability in the sure knowledge that stability will create growth – and they themselves will not be required. The extremists live to destroy. To sustain themselves they must spread their destruction. If the brave souls of Lebanon fall … who will be next? The eyes of the extremists will then turn to those rich states on the periphery of the region – and they will strip those states bare to feed their addiction and leave such a trail of destruction that will be truly unbearable, that will be truly shameful.  Lebanon is crucial to the stability of the entire Middle East region. It is crucial to the stability of the world. This is where a stand must be taken lest the extremists, and the madmen from external states who inspire the extremists, gain too much strength, too much momentum. Lebanon may be a small country yet here is where the heart of the world will either beat strongly or will cease to beat at all. If there is a wider instability there will only be a wider destruction – and will be too much to stop

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1-up'ing the oil da

 

ANY reduction in current oil prices will crash Russian economy, triggers state collapse and expansionism – brink is now.

Blackwill and O’Sullivan 14 – International Council Member, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs/Jeane Kirkpatrick Professor of the Practice of International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School (Robert D. and Meghan L., “America’s Energy Edgeâ€, March/April 2014; < http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/140750/robert-d-blackwill-and-meghan-l-osullivan/americas-energy-edge>)//Beddow

A sustained drop in the price of oil, meanwhile, could destabilize Russia’s political system. Even with the current price near $100 per barrel, the Kremlin has scaled back its official expectations of annual economic growth over the coming decade to around 1.8 percent and begun to make budget cuts. If prices fall further, Russia could exhaust its stabilization fund, which would force it to make draconian budget reductions. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s influence could diminish, creating new openings for his political opponents at home and making Moscow look weak abroad. Although the West might welcome the thought of Russia under such strain, a weaker Russia will not necessarily mean a less challenging Russia. Moscow is already trying to compensate for losses in Europe by making stronger inroads into Asia and the global LNG market, and it will have every reason to actively counter Europe’s efforts to develop its own resources. Indeed, Russia’s state-run media, the state-owned gas company Gazprom, and even Putin himself have warned of the environmental dangers of fracking in Europe -- which is, as The Guardian has put it, “an odd phenomenon in a country that usually keeps ecological concerns at the bottom of its agenda.†To discourage European investment in the infrastructure needed to import LNG, Russia may also preemptively offer its European customers more favorable gas deals, as it did for Ukraine at the end of 2013. More dramatically, should low energy prices undermine Putin and empower more nationalist forces in the country, Russia could seek to secure its regional influence in more direct ways -- even through the projection of military power.

 

 

<LINK – PLAN REDUCES PRICES>

 

A weakened Russia lashes out – triggers war.

Karatnycky and Motyl 09 ­– Senior fellow at the Atlantic Council of the United States, Managing Partner of the Myrmidon Group LCC, contributor to Foreign Affairs and Council on Foreign Relations / Professor of Political Science at Rutgers University and contributor to the Council on Foreign Relations, Foreign Affairs (Adrian and Alexander J., “The Key to Kiev: Ukraine’s Security Means Europe’s Stabilityâ€, May/June 2009; <http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/64953/adrian-karatnycky-and-alexander-j-motyl/the-key-to-kiev>)//Beddow

Under another scenario, a weak Russia with a flagging economy, a decrepit military, and a brittle state would become aggressive either because it believed it was stronger than it really was or because it thought that a quick little crisis might enhance the government's popular legitimacy at home. Russia would then run the very serious risk of engaging in imperial overreach. Despite Putin's bluster and the Russian army's quick victory over tiny Georgia last summer, Russia is at root a flawed, corrupt, and potentially unstable petrostate. And with its propensity for belligerent and nationalist propaganda, such a Russia may continue to engage in militaristic adventurism and experience internal turmoil. Russia resembles more a Third World country that has a nuclear bomb and raw materials than a mature postindustrial state. The more it extends its reach, the more it will get embroiled in military adventures -- and the greater the likelihood of economic, military, or political disaster. If nothing else, more adventurism on Russia's part would be an invitation to its own repressed minorities, such as the Chechens, to reactivate their struggles.

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I feel like there's a DA story somewhere in here. http://www.reddit.com/r/todayilearned/comments/1zyt71/til_there_are_millions_of_chemical_bombs_lying_in/

 

Something like further development in the oceans risks setting off those chemical bombs, wreaking havoc on the oceanic environment.

Eh, they'd have to be developing in the exact area where the dumps are, and the ocean is pretty big. Also some of the weapons have been degrading and leaking over time, so impact should have happened.

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