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Nieto Politics Disad?

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While I was creating an updated Nieto Politics disad, one of my teammates told me that the argument is stupid because if the plan was truly unpopular in Mexico, Nieto would just say no to the plan. I thought about it, and I think that actually makes sense and takes out the argument as a whole. At the same time, though, I'm confused because several camps made extensive files on the Nieto disad, and I would think that they wouldn't waste their time on a blatantly illogical argument. What are your thoughts?

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the argument as i know is it, isnt that the us is unpopular with the entirety of mexico, but rather specific political groups such as pri. So the argument isnt that it is so unpopular it wont pass, but rather nieto looks submissive in front of his party for letting it pass and that wrecks his pc.

 

I havent run this or as a matter of fact never had this run against me, but thats just my thoughts on it

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the argument as i know is it, isnt that the us is unpopular with the entirety of mexico, but rather specific political groups such as pri. So the argument isnt that it is so unpopular it wont pass, but rather nieto looks submissive in front of his party for letting it pass and that wrecks his pc.

 

I havent run this or as a matter of fact never had this run against me, but thats just my thoughts on it

I feel like if the plan was detrimental to Nieto's political agenda (which he probably views as more important than the plan), then he would just refuse to cooperate with the US on the plan.

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I feel like if the plan was detrimental to Nieto's political agenda (which he probably views as more important than the plan), then he would just refuse to cooperate with the US on the plan.

Thats a good point. I guess you could argue, that Mexico would inevitably agree because they are so reliant on us. 

 

Either way that isnt a good aff response because then they are stuck in a double bind- either they link into the politics da or mexico wont initially pass the plan. 

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Either way that isnt a good aff response because then they are stuck in a double bind- either they link into the politics da or mexico wont initially pass the plan. 

Or the plan is popular in Mexico, which most plans seem to be because Mexico and the US want to develop closer economic ties.

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Or the plan is popular in Mexico, which most plans seem to be because Mexico and the US want to develop closer economic ties.

yeah probably so. Like I said I never ran (nor liked mexico ptx DAs) because it seems to be empirically denied 

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Regardless of what the actual story is, the DA is dumb because the uniqueness is *gone*.  Mexico passed the full reform agenda as of December 15th.  Nieto's capital is spent, his popularity is down, and this next year is going to be doing nothing but PR work and hoping the economy rebounds so he has the ability to get anything done in 2015. 

Edited by Squirrelloid
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Actually, most of the evidence post-reform talks about how a TON of secondary legislation is necessary to actually take advantage of the reforms, which makes the DA still viable.

 

Reforms were just the foundation - Nieto has the PC now to consolidate reform and push forward secondary legislation, which is key to the oil sector

http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2014/01/03/mexico-in-2014-can-pena-nieto-consolidate-reform/

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Of course, that same article says that Nieto's popularity is hugely down.  And none of that article says that he actually has the PC to do it, only that it needs to be done.  That's great, but it says nothing about whether it *can* be done with the current political situation.  (Low popularity suggests the answer is no).

 

Edit: I really wish people would stop citing US commentators saying 'So-and-so needs to do x' as evidence that so-and-so *will* do x.  Because its not.  As if the logical disconnect wasn't enough, Venezuela pretty much proved that this last year.  I have at least as much credibility as Duncan Woods on what Mexico 'needs' to do (that is, neither of us speak for the Mexican legislature), and my wishlisting stuff won't make it so either.

Edited by Squirrelloid

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