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OfficerTom

Government Shutdown

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Empirically governemnt shutdowns are short term.  The Clinton one ended relatively quickly.

 

My guess is if it goes on too long the Republicans will look pretty dumb--based on news reports of the economic cost as well as the practical cost.  Its anti-thetical to the Constitutional purpose of governemnt to shut it down in this manner. 

 

In a sense, its arguable you could claim it as a disad or net-benefit to the act of fiat I guess......in the same way the Rider disad works (assuming you are familiar with that).

 

My guess is it will be over before the next two tournaments are in the bag.  The main difference this time, if there is one is that the Tea Party may have a desire to stick one to the president....also there is more on the line here I think in terms of the principles of both parties.  This is pretty historic legislation.

 

You could say shut down being over is inevitable--for instance some of the arguments above prove.  And there is no solid interp of fiat--either it happens now or when the shut down is over in under 2 weeks.  Either way, the aff is a good idea--and we have a comparative advantage over the status quo.  Try or die judge!

 

Plus any interp which shuts down debate (ie bizarree or esoteric interps of fiat like the above)--would be the same static logic thats creating a log jam now.  And would destroy the educational value of the activity.

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Continuing Resolution: Why It Makes Me Have Think That Congress Democrats Are Clever Whether In Reality They Are Or Are Not-

This little government shutdown (it's not really a shutdown and everyone knows what is actually happening in all the nitty gritty details so why are we calling it that? and the only uber significant problems it poses is the 800,000 government workers on furlough) and the losses of potential the economy has/will suffer) can be described as the moment in check where no matter what you do next you are in checkmate. The players obviously are the Reps and the Dems. One of the neat things about this chess game is that the Republicans decided not to play for 6 months and only started to play when the game was as good as lost. The Republicans are screwed no matter what they do. They stand to lose popularity no matter what as 46% of the American public are exclusively blaming the Republicans and more than half blame them to some extent. The longer the Republican leadership say no the worse that gets for them but if they do capitulate and give in and fund the ACA, it will cause derision in their ranks and hurt their appeal. Then next part explains why I believe that the Dems are clever and how the whole situation is playing right into their hands. If the conservatives revolt against the leadership and refuse to capitulate which is likely since their wack enough they don't listen to reason and why they should capitulate. Point being, without the support of the Conservatives, the Republicans don't have the support alone to pass the resolution and as long as a resolution isn't passed they will continue to hurt, which means that they can held hostage by the democrats and the resolution that the Dems want passed will become their own bargaining chip and they will likely use it to weaken sequester or eliminate it all together. So to surmise, the democrats because of the short-sightedness of the Reps have become able to not only get their way with the ACA which has been delayed for months but start to tear down sequester. The only way silver lining for the Reps is that in the resolution sent to the Senate from the House last week, they supported discretionary funding of 988 billion for the 1014 fiscal year but under sequester they can't happen because funding can't exceed 967 billion. To some this might seem as if the Reps can't do math but in actuality is their preparation for their campaign on defense - sequester which will be debated when January rolls around.  I do worry over the timeframe of when CR will be passed. For the reasons I gave above it seems to be complex and as result will be slow. Peeps have been referencing this '95 and '96 shutdown during the Clinton administration that occurred over welfare reform. This shutdown won't be nearly as smooth. That welfare reform was passed substantially more bi-partisan than the ACA. That means that because the ACA was passed in a partisan manner, the talks and conferences will be in less good faith and there will be less common ground for them to work with, which would indicate less cooperation which means a longer shutdown. Parting Words; this isn't so simple as one of those games where you put you and your friend put you head under the water and see who can last out he longest. It's an uplifting series of strategic moves made by those in Congress that better their party. If only they put so much effort and thought into helping us.

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