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Syria-Dip Cap

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How has the situation in Syria changed the dip cap file for it? Can anybody give me some insight into whether or not it can still function on each level of the DA. Obvi, the situation is a lot different now than when it was made and there is a lot more int'l attention on Syria so is Kerry still key or is he even more key? And given that this is pretty highly publicized, it the DA going to be more popular now? Thanks y'all.

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I suppose it's made it into a politics disad.

 

As far as I know, the main impacts to Syrian dipcap were:

 

1) US Cred (Heg)

2) Chemical Weapons (Dumb)

3) Genocide (K-Dumb)

 

So, genocide (refugees, I guess) impact probably hasn't been effected much by recent developments in Syria - the scenario was just saying that Kerry should negotiate in the region to secure the safety of fleeing Syrians, right? you can still run that if you honestly think anything but great power war is an impact (false), but that probably makes you a bad debater

 

Chemical weapons is probably non-unique: the scenario basically said Syrian use of chemical weapons would spread globally (because chemical weapons are WMD or something), or something along those lines. syrian sarin gas kills everyone for... no real reason. Really bad impact and now non-unique (... always was non-unique...).

 

US cred was the only decent impact, basically said that if Kerry backed off Syria the US would appear as if it were retrenching (because, if we back off, it looks like we don't have the resources to credibly challenge syria or, by extension,  Russia). That would cause nations to realize US is losing heg and expedite that retrenchment by intervening (so, a generic heg impact). So, that scenario may still be credible - that Kerry's dipcap is key to negotiating some resolution to the situation and gaining/stopping the loss of US credibility. Given that the US appears weak now and failed to stop chemical weapons use (which I think the camp ev was talking about), it might also be non-unique.

 

I think Syrian politics (Obama good with a cred impact) or "reverse" Syria politics (Obama bad with a Russia impact... Syrian war escalation ev is surprisingly good. Especially if you cut it from infowars.com) is a possibility too, if you don't want to run dipcap. Personally, I'm trying to figure out if dipcap is more credible than reverse politics, or if reverse politics is more credible than dipcap.

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Thanks Stirner a whole lot. What about the Qatar or the Hezbollah scenarios? I don't know what you might be imagining for a Russia impact scenario? Putin putting Obama down good for his image that can cut down on corruption or something? I am interested in what you are thinking of,

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Thanks Stirner a whole lot. What about the Qatar or the Hezbollah scenarios? I don't know what you might be imagining for a Russia impact scenario? Putin putting Obama down good for his image that can cut down on corruption or something? I am interested in what you are thinking of,

I didn't read Syria dipcap at camp, so I really don't know much about these scenarios. iirc, the qatar impact is just that peace in syria helps qatar's soft power - I don't think chemical weapons use non-uniques this. I really don't remember the hezbollah impact at all. I don't think it was very good in the first place if I looked it over.

 

My ideal Russia war impact could be like "reverse" politics (pollcap bad because it gives Obama necessary leverage to get a Syrian strike approved, that strike pisses off the Russians or US intervention escalates.... Russia gets involved in proxywar, escalates, nukewar). I think the case for Syrian strike good 'normal' politics would be more like US cred (Obama doesn't get a syrian strike approved, has to strike a deal with the russians - which looks like it might be happening now, so idk how this disad is going to evolve in the next few weeks -, that makes the US look bad because we had to back down and handshake with a geopolitical rival) as an internal link to heg.

 

The evidence on Syrian war ---> WWIII is actually shockingly good (mostly unqualified, but really, really good), and the impact ev for US cred is also actually pretty good. The thing is, running "reverse" politics is probably an awful idea when it comes to the internal link (you'd either have to win winners win or plan popular... the latter is obviously easier to win, and there's a strong case to be made on this topic that free trade deals like TPP actually are popular, so maybe roll with that. Then again, I consider plan popular a defensive argument... really, this doesn't look like a goo disad).

 

I think the Syrian politics disad has great impacts either way and plausible uniqueness either way, it's just that the i/l argument for the reverse politics (idk if normal politics could garner a Syrian war impact) doesn't make sense.

 

The dipcap scenario could still work - you'd have to update it a lot though (the camp file ev is way too old - just use it as a guide for what sort of stuff you'd need to cut). I personally don't know a lot about what's actually going on in terms of the Syrian situation (if the tensions with Russia are being resolved/military intervention is off the table... if backing down from a strike non-uniques credibilit i/ls, etc.).

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Just saying the whole Syria Politics DA is terminally off the table, because diplomacy with RUssia just resolved everything like 2-3 days ago

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Just saying the whole Syria Politics DA is terminally off the table, because diplomacy with RUssia just resolved everything like 2-3 days ago

http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/09/15/20506030-kerry-says-us-russia-deal-has-full-ability-to-rid-syria-of-chemical-weapons

http://www.cnn.com/2013/09/15/world/meast/syria-civil-war-diplomacy/index.html

:(

 

"We welcome these agreements. On the one hand, they will help Syrians come out of the crisis, and on the other hand, they prevented the war against Syria by having removed a pretext for those who wanted to unleash it,"

Always hate to see a good impact averted. Unfortunately, looks like bombing another country is off the table atm, but I really doubt there won't be any more issues with Syria in the next few weeks, so it might still be a possible disad. I'm sure Kerry's still important for something (eh, maybe not), so dipcap's still around.

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 if you honestly think anything but great power war is an impact (false), but that probably makes you a bad debater

 

No.  Just.....no

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