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New Taiwan Impact Card!

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Here's a new impact to Taiwan Strait war that I cut. I don't know if it's already out there:


And, full scale U.S.-China war over Taiwan escalates due to miscalc and goes nuclear—prefer the most recent and qualified evidence.

Colby et al., March 2013, “Nuclear Weapons and U.S.-China Relations: A way forward,†A report of the Poni Working Group on U.S.-China Nuclear Dynamics, Center for Strategic and International Studies; Elbridge Colby- consultant to the Global Security Directorate and the U.S. Strategic Command and the National Intelligence Council, principal analyst for Global Strategic Affairs in Center for Naval Analyses, BA in History from Harvard College and J.D. from Yale Law School; Abraham M. Denmark- fellow with the Center for a New American Security and directed the Asia-Pacific Security Program, former Country Director for China Affairs in the Office of the Secretary of Defense, History and Political Science at the University of Northern Colorado, MA in International Security from the Josef Korbel School of International Studies at the University of Denver; Directed by John K. Warden- intern at CSIS; http://csis.org/files/publication/130307_Colby_USChinaNuclear_Web.pdf, KTG

Considerations of U.S.-China nuclear relations would be a largely academic exercise without the serious risk of conflict and tension those relations entail. Unfortunately, the significant sources of tension and disagreement between the United States and China could, in the worst case, lead to conflict because a number of these disputes center on highly valued interests for Washington and Beijing and could be exacerbated by third parties, by miscommunication and miscalculation, by domestic political pressures, and by the perceived need to “save face.â€10 Moreover, few of these dis- putes appear likely to be resolved definitively in the near term. Beyond disputes, there is also the simple geopolitical reality of the rise of a new great power in the arena of a well-established status quo power. From time immemorial, this reality has proved to be a source of tension and competi- tion among nations—and has often led to war.¶ A large-scale conventional war between the United States and China would be incredibly dangerous and destructive, and nuclear war between the two countries would be devastating for all involved. Even though the likelihood of conventional war between the two nations is currently low—and the probability of nuclear war is even lower—the appallingly high costs, dangers, and risks of a war demand that this risk be taken seriously and that steps be taken to render armed conflict more unlikely and less dangerous. The fact that China and the United States could come to blows does not mean that any conflict would result in the use of nuclear weapons, but it also does not mean that the use of nuclear weapons can be confidently ruled out, especially because even conflicts over apparently marginal issues can—in ways that are not entirely predictable in advance—escalate into conflicts over core interests. For these reasons, perhaps the single most im- portant task of American statecraft in the coming century will be managing China’s rise in a way that preserves peace while also defending important U.S. interests.11¶ The following factors could threaten those objectives.¶ Disputes¶ Taiwan. Taiwan remains the single most plausible and dangerous source of tension and conflict between the United States and China. Beijing continues to be set on a policy to prevent Taiwan’s independence, and the United States maintains the capability to come to Taiwan’s de- fense.12 Although tensions across the Taiwan Strait have subsided since both Taipei and Beijing embraced a policy of engagement in 2008, the situation remains combustible, complicated¶ by rapidly diverging cross-strait military capabilities and persistent political disagreements.13 Moreover, for the foreseeable future Taiwan is the contingency in which nuclear weapons would most likely become a major factor, because the fate of the island is intertwined both with the legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party and the reliability of U.S. defense commit- ments in the Asia-Pacific region.




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