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Probability over Magnitude

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I want to run a natural disaster related affirmative and i want to get some opinion on it. I have a lot of good inherency cards for my case, because I know many of you will reject my aff simply because most earth monitoring cases don't have any inherency.


What are the dangers of running a natural disasters advantage, and then reading a lot of impact calc on how probability outweighs magnitude?

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Four best recommendations:

1. Michigans Impact file from a year ago (I think thats right)--they put out two--it has a couple different cards. For instance the Min-Max fallacy card (you can also google that to find the entire article by Berube).

This will also include the principle of double-effect.


2. The impact comparison lecture from Georgetown has accompanying download. Don't know what cards are in it, but worth checking out.

I also wouldn't be surprised if one of their files had a couple more cards.


3. This also seems like an opportunity to read one or more of the Black Swan cards. It is about the fundamental nature of all prediction, but seems to apply far more

to disads than to the affirmative.


4. Read the wiki for sites.

--Be on the look out for impact calc & underviews. In fact, I would search "underview"

--See what other teams running this aff are doing in the 2ac


Bottom line considerations--what will the 2NR be going for & what are viable strategies in front of my judging pool:

--Are you more worried about a counterplan or critique strategy?

--Which critiques & which counterplans?

--What are the likely DAs run with the counterplans you are worried about?


One other core consideration--think about explaining how you win inevitability to all the impacts in the debate & probability & systemic--versus their timeframe. I think the Berube & perhaps some of the other evidence will help you articulate this issue.


Does this aff allow you to critique international relations? Unforuntately, this aff will always link to Security & Biopower.


You might also look for systemic o/ws one shot, highly probabalistic DAs. Which essentially seems to be the argument behind a Black Swan style strategy.


An underview which dictate our current NASA strategy--ie leveraging the Russians & the # of missions we will have per year. This seems like a decent uniqueness press against DAs. This is the weakest of all recommendations.


Two other considerations:

1. Does this affirmative not have add ons--particularly of the short term variety?

2. I would also think about the US key cards & what that rationale is.


Third set of options:

1. Impact turn hegemony & economy & critique terrorism.


2. Read the aff...and read nuclear malthus in the 2ac.

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