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Predictions Bad: Psychology

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Around 3 minutes he talks about man's mental simulator; that is, we can judge outcomes of a situation without experiencing it ourselves.

 

An example he gives is liver flavored ice cream. We don't have that, and its not because someone made liver ice cream and said yuck, its because they knew that liver ice cream would be gross. Without experiencing it, we can predict it would be bad.

 

Then he goes on to say how our mental simulator has an "impact bias" where we tend to overestimate things. How about that for a built-in psychological reason to reject predictions?

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Interesting.

 

I haven't watched the other Dan Gilbert, "On our mistaken expectations"--might be of interest on this discussion.

 

Several articles by Dan Gilbert on his website (although I'm not sure how many are specific to this discussion)

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New 1ar response: "Go kill yourself."

 

Devastating. Really this sorta seems to be saying, "try new things" rather than making predictions bad. Ya Liver Ice Creme could be good.... but... it could also suck.

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