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Kagan vs. Thayer

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Which card to you guys think is better? More widely used?

 

KAGAN ALL THE WAY!

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Yeah, seriously, Khalilzad. Though the long version is better.

Kagan and Thayer is a tricky debate, cause Thayer's more focused on "Heg solves stuff" while Kagan's "Heg collapse --> world explodes" Thayer also makes more of a general US influence argument, though still focused on military presence, while Kagan is solely about forward deployment of troops maintaining stability.

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Thayer is filled with great warrants-not only can you use it to say heg solves a lot of the impacts in the round including a lot of turns- but it also has a great power war impact

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Thayer is the best out of all of those because he actually warrants his shit. I personally prefer stuff written by Robert Kaplan as an impact to heg. The downside is that you can't read your unipolarity/american exceptionalism good stuff with him because he argues that we need to be a more benign hegemon instead of a "in your face" hegemon. He talks about how the US still has tremendous power to do stuff no one else can, even if it's no longer as powerful as it once was.

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kzad 95? seriously? people still read that shit? cut some fucking updates and stop being lazy.

 

 

 

I bet you read mead 92 still as well? laughable.

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kzad 95? seriously? people still read that shit? cut some fucking updates and stop being lazy.

 

I bet you read mead 92 still as well? laughable.

 

true, Kzad is a little outdated and honestly not pertinant to the current situation.

I don't think its too compelling that Thayer has warrants because I think Kagan does too, and quite frankly better ones at that. Especially if you have the three page version, its pretty sweet stuff. But Kagan did flip flop a couple years back and a lot of his old stuff directly contradicts with the impact card. As far as which one if overall better is a tough choice but I think i'd lean towards Thayer, just because it has internal links to every impact known to man

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I agree, thayer would win my vote

 

and kzad really? he doesnt make any strong warrants especially in the short version

 

thayer and kagan are both comparatively better

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true, Kzad is a little outdated and honestly not pertinant to the current situation.

 

I fail to see how rogue states, low-level hegemons, and nuclear proliferation, coupled with the threat of the rise of competitors is less applicable today than 14 years ago.

 

But Kagan did flip flop a couple years back and a lot of his old stuff directly contradicts with the impact card.

first, what warrants are you refering to that are better than thayer's. Second, what flip flop? purely informational questions, btw.

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I fail to see how rogue states, low-level hegemons, and nuclear proliferation, coupled with the threat of the rise of competitors is less applicable today than 14 years ago.

 

 

half the examples long kzad cites are gone. sure, "low level hegemons" still exist, but Saddam-led Iraq isn't one of them. better to go with kagan or thayer.

 

plus, half of kagan is a direct pre-empt to offshore balancing. very nice.

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thayer ... trade routes! democracy! terrorists!

 

the point of an impact is to access as many others as you can. with kagan you just get regional wars and he caveats his argument a shit ton in the non-underlined parts

 

The current order, of course, is not only far from perfect but also offers no guarantee against major conflict among the world 's great powers. Even under the umbrella of unipolarity, regional conflicts involving the large powers may erupt. War could erupt between China and Taiwan and draw in both the United States and Japan. War could erupt between Russia and Georgia, forcing the United States and its European allies to decide whether to intervene or suffer the consequences of a Russian victory. Conflict between India and Pakistan remains possible, as does conflict between Iran and Israel or other Middle Eastern states. These, too, could draw in other great powers, including the United States.

Such conflicts may be unavoidable no matter what policies the United States pursues. But they are more likely to erupt if the United States weakens or withdraws from its positions of regional dominance. This is especially true in East Asia, where most nations agree that a reliable American power has a stabilizing and pacific effect on the region. That is certainly the view of most of China 's neighbors. But even China, which seeks gradually to supplant the United States as the dominant power in the region, faces the dilemma that an American withdrawal could unleash an ambitious, independent, nationalist Japan.

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I find that Thayer is a better impact card just because it is somewhat broader if you read it correctly. He gives a good number of internals to common disad impacts, AKA the economy, terrorism, prolif, and for some reason or another, random China disads.

 

And Khalilzad short does not give enough explanation or internals

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