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Thursday File Jan. 23

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About This File

There are a lot of different scenarios this week. I would run either Iran or immigration reform. Here is my breakdown of the literature on the different scenarios.

 

Iran: I would run Iran. The uniqueness is now going in the direction of the Menendez/Kirk legislation not passing, as two key Democrats have moved against the legislation in the last couple of days (Patty Murray and Elizabeth Warren). The impacts are spectacular, as even passage of the Menendez/Kirk bill would tank the Geneva accords, leading to a risk of Israeli strikes and Iranian proliferation. You don’t have a debate that is tied up in the economy, and you get large external impacts. You might have a little trouble with Uniqueness overwhelms the link, as it seems there is little chance of getting to the 67 votes to override the presidential veto (the measure has 59 votes now).

 

Immigration reform: it is viable, and would be my second choice. There are a lot of cards saying it will pass now, as the Republicans feel they must pass it quickly so they can begin campaigning for the midterms. I have two issues with immigration reform. First, the evidence that says Obama isn’t pushing it and giving the Republicans space to make a deal is very good—he isn’t investing political capital right now. Second, the impact is always a bit sketchy, as it is a long term economy style scenario that the AFF can probably access.

 

Unemployment benefits: I think this is a weak scenario. It probably won’t pass, as it got wrapped up in the overall employment bill and failed two procedural votes. The impact isn’t very good—the benefits are a drop in the bucket and are merely a redistribution of existing funds. Finally, it’s an economy scenario, which has empirically denied impacts and the AFF can probably access.

 

Debt ceiling: While possible, the fight isn’t till mid-February, and the evidence that the Republicans will cave and not make big demands this time is very good. While the NEG will try to spin this as uniqueness, I think the uniqueness overwhelms the link. Plus, the markets aren’t scared of a default this time so the “cause a fight which freaks out the markets†story isn’t very true.

 

Midterms: Too early and Obamacare is key to the election. Not much more to say.

 

TPP: There are some good specific thumpers, and it doesn’t look like it’s coming up for a vote.

 

All proceeds from this week’s Thursday File go to support the Howard College of Arts & Sciences minority scholarship.

 

Good luck, and feel free to email me any questions at rwlcgalloway@gmail.com.

 

Sincerely,

Dr. Ryan W. Galloway

Director of Debate

Samford University

 

Strategy Guide. 3

Iran DA.. 4

Iran (1nc Shell) 5

Uniqueness Extensions. 7

UQ Wall: Sanctions Won’t Pass Now.. 8

UQ: Obama Has Capital 11

UQ: AT: Obamacare Thumper 13

UQ: AT: No Vote. 15

UQ: AT: Vote A Long Way Off. 17

UQ: Obama Fighting Off Sanctions Now.. 18

UQ: Congress Pushing For Sanctions Now.. 20

UQ: AT: Israel Lobby Means Congress Won’t Cave. 21

UQ: AT: Veto means UQ overwhelms link. 22

UQ: Obama Veto Will Hold. 24

UQ: Now Key Time. 25

UQ: AT: Centrifuges kill the deal 26

Internal Links. 27

Internal Links: Political Capital Key to Fight Off Supporters. 28

Internal Links: AT: Winners Win. 34

Internal Links: Democrats Key. 35

Internal Links: Votes Can Shift 36

Impacts. 39

Impacts: Sanctions = War 40

Impacts: Iran Prolif Module. 46

Impacts: Iran Prolif Bad. 50

Impacts: AT: Iran will be deterred. 55

Impacts: AT: Sanctions Can Be Waived. 56

Impacts: AT: Iran Will Cheat 59

Impacts: Sanctions Bad/Diplomacy Works. 60

Impacts: AT: Sanctions Good. 61

Impacts: Diplomacy Succeeding Now.. 66

Impacts: Sanctions Undercut Diplomacy. 68

Impacts: Sanctions Empower Hardliners. 71

Impacts: Can Trust Rouhani 74

Impacts: AT: Khamenei, not Rouhani, is in charge. 75

Impacts: Deal Solves. 76

Impacts: Sanctions Kill Unity. 77

Impacts: AT: North Korea Proves Softline Fails. 78

Impacts: AT: Terrorism Turn/Sanctions Stop Iran Support of Terrorists. 79

Impacts: Turn Case Modules. 80

Impacts: Economy. 81

Impacts: Hegemony. 82

Impacts: Laundry List of Countries. 84

Impacts: Middle East War 85

Impacts: Oil Prices. 87

Impacts: Proliferation. 88

Impacts: Syria Module. 89

AFF Answers. 92

Iran Answers (2ac Front-Line) 93

1ar: No Vote. 97

1ar: Political Capital Useless. 98

1ar: No Capital 99

1ar: Obamacare Thumper 100

1ar: No War 103

AFF Answers—Iran Prolif Answers. 104

Sanctions Good Impact Turns (2ac Front-Line) 105

Immigration Reform NEG Updates. 108

Immigration Reform Shell 109

UQ Wall: Immigration Reform Will Pass Now.. 113

UQ: Now Key Time. 115

UQ: AT: Only Piecemeal Reform Will Pass. 116

UQ: AT: Amnesty Provisions Doom Bill 117

UQ: Serious Commitment to IR Now.. 118

UQ: AT: Obama will pass it by executive order 119

Impacts: Immigration Reform Key to Economy. 120

Immigration Reform AFF Answers (2ac) 121

1ar: Obama Not Pushing Immigration Reform... 123

1ar: Immigration Reform Won’t Pass Now.. 124

Debt Ceiling Answers (2ac) 125

1ar: Extensions: UQ Overwhelms link. 127

Midterms Answers. 128

TPP AFF Answers. 130

Unemployment Benefits Answers 131




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